CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-09T13:20:54Z
## Message ID: 20241009-AL-008
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Update on CME with ID 2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20241009-AL-007).  Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, Mars, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A.  The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-10-10T11:16Z, Mars at 2024-10-12T14:48Z, Solar Orbiter at 2024-10-09T19:42Z, and STEREO A at 2024-10-10T18:14Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-10T14:55Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 8-9 (severe to extreme).

   
Parameters of this O-type CME (not updated) are:

Start time of the event: 2024-10-09T02:12Z.

Estimated speed: ~1509 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 8/13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001


Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241009_041600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241009_041600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241009_041600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241009_041600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241009_041600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241009_041600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241009_041600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241009_041600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241009_041600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.8 flare from Active Region 3848 (N13W08) with ID 2024-10-09T01:25:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-09T01:56Z (see notifications 20241009-AL-001, 20241009-AL-002) and SEP at GOES-P with ID 2024-10-09T03:50:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20241009-AL-004, 20241009-AL-006), SEP at GOES-P with ID 2024-10-09T05:05:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20241009-AL-003, 20241009-AL-006), SEP at SOHO with ID 2024-10-09T06:01:00-SEP-001 and with ID 2024-10-09T06:01:00-SEP-002 (see notification 20241009-AL-006), and SEP at STEREO A with ID 2024-10-09T08:55:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20241009-AL-005, 20241009-AL-006).


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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